Cornyn's Catch-22

A year ago, I called John Cornyn a “Dead Senator Walking,” and there’s no reason to believe that his condition is less fatal now.

Expectations for Cornyn dropped so low before primary night that finishing with just 41.9% - barely one percent higher than the profoundly corrupt Ken Paxton – was somehow seen as a good showing. That’s a bad read.

John Cornyn is in his 24th year in the U.S. Senate and has held elected office in Texas almost continuously since 1985. He is well known in every corner of the state. He is the epitome of incumbency.

Historically, in Texas and everywhere else, when a long-time incumbent like John Cornyn is forced into a run-off, whether in first or second place, they ultimately lose. Why? All the voters know them, and a majority voted to get rid of them once. They are unlikely to change their minds in round two.

Cornyn sensed the danger of his establishment DNA early in the cycle so he has spent the past year desperately trying to cover up old-line Republican makeup and courtly manners with MAGA greasepaint and balloon bouquets to Donald Trump.

He paired his MAGA makeover with relentless attacks on Ken Paxton, telling Republican Primary voters what they already know – that Paxton is a sinful, serial adulterer with a career-long record of corruption. But in today’s Texas Republican Party, crooks and creeps are way less offensive than reason and RINOs.

So now, to get past his primary jam, Cornyn is counting on Donald Trump throwing him a life-line endorsement and giving Paxton “an offer-he-can’t-refuse” appointment. But even if all that happens, Cornyn is still stuck in a Catch-22. He needs the Trump endorsement to get the nomination, but Trump’s golden touch now may be the kiss of death in the fall.

A desperation endorsement for Cornyn will infuriate Paxton supporters who are the most ardent activists within the Texas MAGA movement. Just the prospect of it set off hatriot Julie McCarty, who heads the radical MAGA kingmaker organization, True Texas Project. She rejects even the notion of Trump endorsing in the run-off, recently posting “This is 100% infuriating regardless of which candidate you support. Texans get to pick. Not Trump.” McCarty’s post received over 300 comments, nearly all backing her up.

So Cornyn would carry an endorsement resented by a half or more of Republican primary voters into the general election.

Democrats, independents, and the handful of reasonable Republicans remaining will see the Trump endorsement as proof positive that Cornyn surrendered his last ounce of integrity and sold the last little bit of his political soul. That will contrast badly with the broad, fair-minded, and inclusive appeal of Democratic nominee, James Talarico.

So don’t count on a Trump endorsement of John Cornyn as the miracle cure for a Dead Senator Walking. Even if Cornyn survives past the May 26^th run-off, the November 3^rd General Election will likely be his political expiration date.